Ag Market Commentary

Corn price action turned south in the afternoon, and closed fractionally lower. Dec futures traded with a 7 1/2 cent range. USDA’s mandatory sales reporting system noted large sales to China and Unknown this morning. Private exporters sold 140,000 MT of corn to China, and 320,000 MT of corn to Unknown destinations, both with 2020/21 delivery. January corn futures on the Dalian Grains Exchange set a new contract high yesterday up 21 yuan/MT to 2,496 (~ $9.27/bu). DDGS prices in China were quoted at 2,160 yuan/MT fresh out of the plant, with most sales 2,200-2,400 yuan/MT (~ $325-354/MT). NASS reported corn harvest progressed by 3% on the week to 8%. The 5-yr av is for 10%. Harvest in TX was 69% complete, compared with their average of 10%. In NE, 10% of new crop was cut by Sept 20, compared to the average of 4%. Conditions from the Crop Progress report were 61% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 356.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.78 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.84 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $3.88 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



November soybeans had intraday gains of as much as 16 3/4 cents, but ultimately settled 2 3/4 cents lower. The other front months also closed 1 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents lower. Soymeal futures were $1.20 to $3.90/ton higher at the closing bell. Bean Oil futures were down 60 points on the day. USDA’s mandatory sales reporting system noted large sales to China and Unknown this morning. The new crop bean sale to China was for 266,000 MT and the sale to unknown was for 264,000 MT with 2020/21 delivery as well. Jan No.1 soybean futures on the Dalian were down 19 yuan/MT to 4,592 (~ $18.43/bu) on Sept 21. Nov No.2 bean futures closed 12 yuan/MT higher at 3,766 (~ $15.12/bu). Reports from Argentina’s CIARA-CEC are for a 9.5% decline in soy crush on an 11.4% lower supply of beans. Official August data showed crush was 20% lower yr/yr noting 50% of plants were offline.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.19 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.24 1/2, down 3 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.19, down 2 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.15 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $337.30, up $3.90

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.67, down $0.60

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures came back down from midday gains, but still closed the Turnaround Tuesday session in the black. CBT wheat was up 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents at the close. KC HRW futures ended the day 4 to 4 1/2 cents higher. HRS futures ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with 2 1/2 to 6 cent gains. Black Sea dryness left FOB prices $4.75 higher to $235.50 as 2020/21 planting is underway. Taiwan issued a tender for 91,300 MT of U.S. wheat with results expected tomorrow. Egypt’s international wheat tender was filled with 405,000 MT of Russian sourced wheat. South Korea’s MFG passed on offers for 70,000 MT of feed wheat.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.58, up 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.91 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.39 3/4, up 5 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At the close for Tuesday, front month fat cattle futures were 22 cents to $1.05 in the red with triple digit losses for Feb and April. Feeder cattle futures were down triple digits as well, closing $1.47 to $1.62 in the red. September futures closed 62 cents higher before Thursday’s expiration, @ $141.70. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was a $0.75 premium to Sept futures, at $142.45 for September 21. USDA reported very limited Tuesday cash sales from $105 live basis and $161-$164 dressed. Tomorrow’s FCE online cattle auction has 683 head listed. Trade estimates ahead of Friday’s CoF report are for 11.355 million head of cattle on feed on Sept 1. August marketings are estimated 4.3% to 2.5% below ’19, on one less marketing day. The average of analyst estimates has placements at 5.9% above 2019, with 1.995m head placed in August. The monthly Cold Storage report tonight showed 460.2m lbs of beef stocks in August. That was up 20 million from July, but down 2.1% yr/yr. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the PM report, tightening the spread to $9.14 cwt. Choice boxes fell back 78 cents, and Select boxes were 48 cents stronger. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Tuesday at 121k head. WTD slaughter is at 241,000 head, outpacing the same week last year by 9,000.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $106.475, down $0.225,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $110.175, down $0.425,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $114.200, down $1.050,

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.700, up $0.625

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.625, down $1.625

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.175, down $1.550

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures trading ended the with $0.97 to $2.72 gains ahead of the quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/18 was $71.29, up another $1.71. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price from this afternoon’s update was $3.27 higher at $63.25. Frozen pork stocks from USDA’s Cold Storage report were the tightest for the month of August since 2011. USDA showed 4678m lbs of pork in the coolers, up 7 million from July. Frozen bellies stocks were down 11.8m lbs mo/mo to the lowest since October of 2018 @ 30.5 million lbs. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was fell back $1.43 to $88.66 on weakness in hams. The primal cuts were all up by more than $1 cwt. save for a $16.45 drop in hams – the largest single day drop since June. USDA estimated Tuesday’s FI hog slaughter at 485,000 head. After a 7k head revision from Monday’s kill, WTD slaughter is at 963k. That compares to 914k from the same week in 2019.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $68.325, up $2.725,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $64.100, up $2.550

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $69.075, up $1.850

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cotton futures closed the day 10 to 30 points in the black. Chinese cotton futures were 12,570 yuan (~$0.8333/lb) on Sept 21. Carry on the ZXE was approximately widened to 2.09 cents Nov-Jan and 3.38 cents for Jan-Mar. Monday sales on The Seam were 2,266 bales at an average gross price of 54.53 cents/lb. USDA reported 1,275 bales were sold at spot on Tuesday, for an average price of 59.93 cents/lb. ICE reported another 479 certified bales for a deliverable stock of 7,466 bales. The Cotlook A index for Sept 21 was 70.95 c/lb, down by an additional 20 points. The AWP for cotton is 50.88 cents/lb for the week; with an LDP at 1.12 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 63.84, up 10 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 65.54, up 30 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.47, up 23 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 67.28, up 20 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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