Closing Commetary





 Market Commentary by Total Farm Marketing 

Closing Commentary - April 15, 2021


Top Farmer Closing Commentary

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Corn futures finished mixed after breaking the 6.00 mark for the first time in seven years. May reached a high of 6.01-1/2 before closing 4 cents lower at 5.90 posting a hook reversal. New crop December closed 1 higher at 5.12-1/4 after reaching a new contract high of 5.17. Export sales at 12.9 million were considerably weak as today’s figure was considerably lower than in previous weeks, yet this brings the year to-date total to 2.630bb. The most recent forecast from the USDA is 2.675 bb. With today’s sales figure, 98.3% of the yearly expectation is now met. The key will be how much is shipped and if there are any cancellations. The most recent 90-day forecast calls for above normal temperature and below normal precipitation in the western corn-belt. This area is already dry with low subsoil conditions a continual concern. Tensions between the United States and China are on the rise and this is concerning. With new highs established farmer selling likely picked up at the 6.00 area, as did speculators taking exiting long positions. This may have, in part, influence the inability of May futures to hold solid gains from early in the morning session. Most likely commercial forms bought an influx of corn sold by farmers and in turn were hedging the board.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures finished with solid gains of 5 to 9-1/4 cents as August futures lead today’s gainers closing at 13.72-1/2. Nearby May gained 8-1/4 closing at 14.18-1/4 and November up 5 at 12.69. The NOPA crush report was favorable with 177.984 mb crushed in March, the second highest March on record. Demand continues to underpin prices as does tight inventory. Today’s export sales, while small at 3.3 mb, it nonetheless was positive. This spring’s total export sales to date two 2.233 billion. The most recent USDA estimate is for a yearly total sale of 2.280 billion. 97.9% of projected sales are on the books. As mentioned in the corn report the key is for inspections to remain strong in leave little room for export sales cancellations. Tight inventory oh soybean suggest that price setbacks will likely be met with little to no farmers selling. Therefore, while prices are at a high level, they are also rangebound. Brazil will have a record crop and their beans will compete on the export market with the remaining US crop. The us dollar lost ground again today.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: May Chi wheat up 5 3/4 cents closing at 6.53 3/4 and July Chi up 5 1/4 cents at 6.55 1/2. May KC wheat up 4 1/4 cents closing at 6.07 3/4, while KC July closed up 3 ¾ cents at 6.15 1/4. Weather continues to be a driving force in the wheat market today, freezing temps have hit winter-wheat growing areas of the Midwest. Temps down to the freezing overnight over the northern plains pose a potential threat to current crop.  More precipitation is expected in the southwest plains through tomorrow – however the forecast turns gravely drier for the rest of the plains for the next 2 weeks minimally. Wheat exports were anything but exciting today, coming in at 56,600 mt. Paris milling futures were higher again today, they too are nervous about effects of recent cold weather on current crop health. Weak exports, global productions numbers, globally wheat is rated very well in Black Sea region & Australia – how is wheat moving higher? So far for this week at least, cold weather in plains followed by more drought like conditions, a rally in corn, and tensions in Russia & Ukraine appear to be keeping wheat supported for now.

CATTLE HIGHLIGHTS: Cattle futures finished lower again today .The April contract, down five consecutive days, lost .500 to 121.600 and June cattle, down for six consecutive days, lost .400 to 119.650. Price are challenging the bottom of the trading range, and the June contact is challenging the reversal on the charts from March 18. The cash market started to develop today, but was still slow overall. Texas and Kansas saw cash trade at $120, $121 respectively, steady to slightly higher than last week. Norther trade has stayed quiet overall. Producers are still holding out the prospects for improved bids going into the end of the week. Producer resiliency may be supported by good retail strength. At midday, Choice carcasses gained an additional 3.92 to 276.83, and Select was 1.56 higher to 268.67. Light to moderate movement at 54 loads. Some additional caution may have come into the markets today after this morning’s exports sales numbers. New weekly sales were at 15,700 MT, down 14% from last week and 23% below the 4-week Average. Shipments were supportive at 19,000 MT, up slightly from last week. Japan, China and South Korea were last week’s top buyers of beef. Cattle slaughter has been trending lower this week, with estimated slaughter today at 114,000 head, down 5,000 from last week. Estimated slaughter was trending about 7,000 head lower than last week’s totals. The tighter supply and the thought of packers being short-bought should help support the cash market going into the end of the week and next week, as long as carcass values stay strong. The Feeder market stayed weak, adding to the selling pressure in the complex. April feeders dropped 1.100 to 140.050, and May feeders fell 1.000 to 144.425. Moderate strength in grain markets and technical selling has pushed feeders lower. The cash feeder index is trading at 142.30, down 1.26 today, but at a premium to the April futures, this could limit losses. The market has moved from over-bought to a over sold position very quickly. The bottom may be near, but the long liquidation is still in front of the market, unless the strong fundamentals can help turn the corner.

LEAN HOG HIGHLIGHTS: Hog futures finished sharply lower with a majority of contracts pushing limit down today. Aril hogs end their trading life tomorrow, finished .200 to 103.400, but June hogs finished the 3.000 limit lower to 104.700. The market was trying to recover from the recent push lower, but a week of poor export sales helped break the market lower today. USDA reported weekly export sales last week at 17,200 MT, a marketing year low and down 48% from last week. Mexico was the largest buyer for the week. Keep in mind the markets were dealing with Easter week for those sales, and China was on Holiday. Export shipments were still supportive at 38,600 MT, unchanged from last week. Despite the soft week, the U.S. outstanding sales are still extremely strong, and demand for U.S. pork internationally still stays strong. Those factors were still reflective in the daily fundamentals. Cash market and Lena hog Index stay firm. The Lean hog index gained .32 to 102.70, narrowing its gap to the April futures. Carcass values were higher at midday. Pork carcasses gained 4.83 to 114.92 with good movement at 162 loads. The rib and the belly cuts were strong supporting carcass values this afternoon. Those fundamental factors should support the market, but the breakdown technically brought in the additional selling. Prices will likely work lower into the start of the session tomorrow, as June may be targeting the price gap at 103.550 from March 26. The hog market was strongly over-bought going into this weakness, and the long liquidation may continue until prices look like a value overall.



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Quotes are delayed, as of April 15, 2021, 05:46:03 PM CDT or prior.
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