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Stewart-Peterson Market Commentary

Closing Commentary - August 12, 2020

 

Top Farmer Closing Commentary

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Corn futures finished with modest gains of 1-3/4 to 3-3/4 cents, as December lead today’s rally closing at 3.27-1/4. Nearby September gained 3, closing at 3.14-1/2. As expected, today’s USDA report was considered somewhat negative as yield increased more than expected with today’s figure at 181.8 bushels per acre. The average pre-report estimate was 180.5 and last month’s 178.5. Good weather and high crop ratings suggested an increase and today confirmed it. Carryout increased to 2.756 billion, with increased production offset by 75 million bushel increases in the feed and export line items. Today’s technical trade looks encouraging with prices posting a reversal after trading lower during the morning session. In other words, a somewhat bearish report had a positive reaction. Could this mean the low is in? It could, and the market may be looking at wind damage from earlier in the week as well as prospects for increased exports to China. It is important to not only gauge the reaction to the report but what happens in the days after. One concern we have is that those who are worried about prices going down see today and take a collective breath and believe the low is in. Yet, if prices don’t follow through to the top side, good weather and harvest could easily push prices toward $3 with the fundamental backing by today’s numbers.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures finished with impressive and encouraging gains on the heels of what some might term really bearish news. September futures closed 10 cents higher at 8.80-1/2 and November 9-1/2 higher at 8.83, its highest close since August 4. Today’s yield number for soybeans came in much larger than expected at 53.8 bushels an acre when the market was looking for something closer to 51. Last month’s number was 49.8. Today’s big yield number along with other minor adjustments to line items left carryout at 610 million bushels, well above last month’s 425 million and above the average pre-report estimate. Yet prices showed little appetite for moving lower and by day’s end were clawing higher finishing with solid gains, some double-digit. There was some bullish news however and it was in the form of projected world carryout which came in at 95.36 million metric tons below the average pre-report estimate of 97.5. A small decline to the Argentine crop along with increased imports by China helped offset increased U.S. production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Sep Chi futures is down 3-3/4 cents, closing at 4.91-1/4 and Dec is down 3-3/4 cents, closing at 5.00. Sep KC wheat is up 1 cent, closing at 4.17-3/4, and Dec up 3/4 of a cent, closing at 4.29. The USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks from 942 mb to 925 mb for 2020-21, the market anticipated this number to be raised not lowered, but the USDA also increased export estimates by 25 mb. The U.S. wheat crop was raised as expected, from 1.824 billion bu to 1.838 billion bu. Spring wheat production came in higher than expected at 577 million bu. Hard red wheat came in lower than trade expectation at 695 million bushels. World ending stocks increased, from 314.84 mmt to 316.79 mmt, this was higher than expected as well. It is worth noting that Russia’s crop was increased by 1.5 mmt and Ukraine was increased by 0.5 mmt. Europe was lowered 4 mmt, largely due to the concerns in France this year. Weather is optimal for getting the small 10% of HRW out of the fields, and spring harvest should have little to no delays this week either to keep progressing.

CATTLE HIGHLIGHTS: Cattle markets compounded recent strength, making mostly triple-digit gains with solid buying interest. August lives closed 1.70 higher to 106.35, October lives closed 1.27 higher to 109.57, and December lives closed 0.87 higher to 112.55. August feeders closed 0.75 higher to 145.25 and September feeders were up 1.32 to 147.95. Choice beef values closed 0.88 higher yesterday afternoon to 208.08, the highest level since June 29. Choice beef was up another 0.56 this morning to 208.64. The cast trend so far this week is very strong, with transactions as high yesterday as 103.00 in Kansas and 105.00 in Nebraska. There was noted trade today in Texas at 104.00 and 105.00 in Kansas. Slaughter so far this week is running about 1,000 head ahead of last week but 2,000 head behind the same week last year. The best-traded October live cattle contract made its highest close today since February 27. Remember that there is a gap to fill on the October chart at 115.72. Today’s close was above the Bollinger Band range and has pulled stochastics into overbought territory. September feeders made their highest close since February 21 and have a gap to close at 150.52.

LEAN HOG HIGHLIGHTS: Hog prices made mixed finishes today, making a successful test of nearby support. August hogs were down 0.17 to 52.90, October hogs were down 0.22 to 51.60, and December hogs were up 0.10 to 53.40. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 0.77 to 53.79. Carcass cutout values closed 0.32 higher yesterday afternoon to 70.39 and were up another 0.49 this morning to 70.88. Pork prices have been extremely volatile in recent sessions, and this is usually caused by a jump in export activity, and traders will be keen to see if this is confirmed on tomorrow’s Export Sales report. The October contract is trading at a discount of about 2.00 to the cash Index vs a normal discount of nearly 13.00. October hog futures made a disappointing close yesterday below the 100-day moving average level and stayed below that moving average line today. Prices tested the 50-day moving average support early this morning, but traders saw that area as value. December hogs tested and held their 100-day moving average support level.

  

We are currently only taking grain at our Vinton location. 

Clutier office will be closed until further notice. 

Call either the Dysart or Vinton office for assistance. 

 

We are offering direct deposit payments and scale ticket grades via text message to ensure social distancing. Please call the Dysart office for informaiton and forms.  

 

Tama-Benton Cooperative Locations and Office Hours 

 

Dysart- 319-476-3666

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30

 

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Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30pm

 

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Office Hours

Closed Until Further Notice 

 

All Grain Settlements are now completed at the Dysart Office. For your convenience Grain Checks and Contracts may be printed at the Vinton or Clutier locations. 


 CR PROCESSOR HOURS   

FRIDAY AUGUST 14TH

ADM  CLOSED

INGREDION  CLOSED

STARCH  CLOSED

CARGILL BEANS  CLOSED

 

THESE HOURS ARE POSTED FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE.SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

BE PREPARED FOR EARLY CLOSING WITHOUT NOTICE DUE TO WEATHER, FLOODING, OR DOWNTIME.

Please report Direct Shipment Loads Promptly to the Dysart Office in Order to Maintain Delivery Schedules and to Final Price Contract Overfills and Underfills. Thank You 

 

 

 

   

 

 

Market Snapshot
Quotes retrieved on August 14, 2020, 02:33:46 AM CDT
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