Closing Commetary

 

 

 

 

 Market Commentary by Total Farm Marketing 

Closing Commentary - November 24, 2021

 

Top Farmer Closing Commentary

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Corn futures ended the session with small losses posting hook reversals after moderate to strong gains of 7 to 8 cents in the morning session. Traders may have exited longs, established shorts, or both heading into a holiday weekend. December lost 0-3/4, closing at 5.79-3/4 and March gave up 2-3/4 to end the session at 5.90-1/2. December 2022 lost 1-1/4 to close at 5.58-1/4 after posting a new contract high of 6.65.

A negative looking bearish key reversal in the wheat market may have also weighed on corn futures late in the session. Strong basis levels and continued moderate to light selling by farmers provides underlying support. Strong ethanol margins are said to be the primary rationale for strong cash. Export sales normally released tomorrow will be released on Friday. Soybean futures also finished lower likely also having influence on corn, as traders may have decided to reduce long positions in all row crops. While there is some corn to be harvested, we believe that harvest pressure is now behind the market. Attention will now focus on South American weather and crop prospects. The markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, but will open at 8:30 central on Friday, November 26. The ethanol grind indicated 109.5 mb, about 2 mb more than last week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures traded in a rangebound fashion, finishing the day near the bottom half of the daily trading range. Futures lost 3 to 7 cents in lackluster trade, as a lack of new positive news, along with weakness in soybean meal, weighed on price. Providing support was a sale of soybean oil to India. January futures lost 6-1/2 to close at 12.66-1/2 and November 2022 gave up 3-3/4 to end the session at 12.49-3/4.

The futures market struggled today, but never really looked weak. On the one hand, prices finished off the high, not a great sign. While some forecasters are suggesting growing concern of La Nina affecting crops, to date, the southern hemisphere planting and growing pace is on or ahead of schedule. Too much rain could be hampering crop production in central Brazil. Usually, too much rain in one area is of benefit to other areas where rainfall is normal, or even welcomed. Firming world vegetable prices and traders moving back into long soybean oil short soymeal is also helping provide support for oil, which closed 60 to 80 cents higher, while meal lost near 5.00. Depending on contract month, the 100 or 200-day moving average held as overhead resistance.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wheat rallied early on setting new contract highs, but that was short-lived, as one would’ve expected ahead of a holiday after setting contract highs for 5 days in a row. Dec Chicago lost 19-1/4 cents, closing at 8.36-3/4 & KC wheat closed 5 cents higher at 8.73-1/4.

To see prices close lower today is of no real shock, especially with the run wheat has had this week and last – seems likely funds took some profit today and will see what the market holds next week when normal trading resumes. KC wheat still was stronger than Chicago today, as the rains in Australia continue to support KC wheat.  It is still feared that the US drought is only going to expand and worsen this year due to the effects of La Nina.  The world’s milling quality and protein wheat continues to slip and ultimately, end users may have to turn to US wheat if Australia’s crop isn’t sufficient this year.  Russian wheat prices continue to climb alongside their export tax, which is currently $78/mt, and it is believed Russia could increase that by another $1-8 before year’s end.

CATTLE HIGHLIGHTS: Cattle futures were sharply higher, led by technical buying and backed by cash trade pushing to the $140 level this week. Deferred contract strength stays consistent, as February and later contracts established new contract highs on Wednesday. Dec cattle gained 2.500 to 137.900, and Feb cattle added 1.450 to 140.875. Feeders followed along and posted strong triple-digit gains as the January feeders gained 2.550 to 166.925.

Price gains in the cattle market accelerated going into the Thanksgiving break, as money flowed into the cattle markets. Dec cattle looked poised to challenge the recent contract high and gapped open on the start of the session, reflecting the market strength. The Dec contract high is 138.225 and looks to be the last contract high to possibly fall. Deferred contracts improved on those contract highs established yesterday. The trigger for the strong money flow was a push higher in cash trade on Wednesday. Early morning bids improved to $139-140, with some light trade reported at $140 in the South. This was $4.00 higher than last week and well above the futures market price. Futures prices are rallying to fill that gap. Most trade will likely be complete with the Holiday on Thursday, but some additional cleanup trade could occur on Friday. Boxed beef values were firm at midday. Choice carcasses gained 0.67 to 279.31, and Select was 1.29 higher to 263.96. Load count was light at 68 loads. Due to the holiday, Friday will bring the next round of beef export sales number. Last week, helping to support the market was the strong activity of China buying U.S. beef. Feeder cattle saw strong money flow as well, as charts accelerated higher. January feeders are running a strong premium to the cash index, which could limit gains, but with futures trading at their highest point since early September, the charts are pointing to a retest of this summer’s highs. Technically, charts have broken out and are strong pointing to the upside. Caution comes from seasonality, which typically sees a peak after Thanksgiving, and prices pulling back into a end of year low. For now, the buyers are in the market, and a near-term top is still on the horizon.

LEAN HOG HIGHLIGHTS:  Hog futures were mixed with buying strength in the front end of the market, as spill over strength from the cattle market and value buying supported the front end of the market. Dec hogs gained 1.275 to 75.425 and Feb hogs gained 0.975 to 84.250.

Dec hog futures are challenging trendline support as prices are consolidating on this support. Prices bounced of this trendline level but were held in check by the 10-day and 20-day moving averages over top as prices stay in a consolidation pattern. The cash market stays extremely soft overall, which has been acting as the main limitation in the hog market. Cash prices saw some recover on midday trade, possibly reflecting the value and the market moving past the pressure on the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. The Lean Hog Index was higher, gaining 0.27 to 73.15. Dec hog futures have now moved into a premium over the index, which could limit gains in the front month. National Direct morning hog report posted gains, rising 0.26 compared to Tuesday’s trade. Carcass values were firmer at midday, as retail pork gained .59 to 85.51. Load count was moderate at 235 loads. The USDA will release weekly pork export sales numbers on Friday morning due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Sales numbers and shipments were supportive last week, and the market will be hoping for another set of good numbers. Consolidation is still the pattern for the front month dec hogs, but February hogs look to be challenging resistance over-top at 85.350 level.

 

We are offering direct deposit payments and scale ticket grades via text message to ensure social distancing. Please call the Dysart office for informaiton and forms.  

Our offices will be closed this Thursday and Friday.

 We are truly thankful for your business.

Have a wonderful holiday.

 

Tama-Benton Cooperative Locations and Office Hours 

 

Dysart- 319-476-3666

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30

 

Vinton 319-472-4791

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30pm

 

Clutier 319-479-2242

Office Hours

Monday-Friday 8:00-4:30pm 

 

All Grain Settlements are now completed at the Dysart Office. For your convenience Grain Checks and Contracts may be printed at the Vinton or Clutier locations. 


 CR PROCESSOR HOURS   

THU, FRI, SAT, SUN, & MON NOV 25TH, 26TH, 27TH, 28TH, & 29TH

ADM:  THU:CLOSED  FRI,SAT,&SUN:5am-5pm  MON:5am-8pm

INGREDION:  THU:CLOSED  FRI:7:30am-1pm  SAT&SUN:CLOSED  MON:7:30am-2:30pm

STARCH:  THU:CLOSED  FRI:7am-4:30pm  SAT:7am-3pm  SUN:CLOSED  MON:7am-3pm

CARGILL BEANS:  THU,FRI, SAT,&SUN:CLOSED  MON:BY APPOINTMENT 6am-5pm

 

THESE HOURS ARE POSTED FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE.SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

BE PREPARED FOR EARLY CLOSING WITHOUT NOTICE DUE TO WEATHER, FLOODING, OR DOWNTIME.

Please report Direct Shipment Loads Promptly to the Dysart Office in Order to Maintain Delivery Schedules and to Final Price Contract Overfills and Underfills. Thank You 

 

 

 

   

 

 

Market Snapshot
Quotes are delayed, as of November 28, 2021, 08:02:30 AM CST or prior.
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